by Ganesh Rasagam

Part 2
 

Penang State, with about 3 per cent of the total length of paved roads in Malaysia, has presently over 10 per cent of the total number of registered vehicles in the country.(12)

This is not a new phenomenon as in 1967, Penang state had 13 per cent of the total operating vehicles in West Malaysia although the state had only 9 per cent of the total population.(13)

Table A below highlights the trend in private vehicle ownership between 1970 and 2000.
 

This trend of vehicle growth can be clearly seen in Figure A.

The total number of cars and motorcycles more than doubled between 1990 and 2000. 

While the growth rate of motorcycles has been consistently higher than for cars between 1970-1995, cars are increasing faster than motorcycles since 1995. In fact, the period 1995-2000 registered the highest rate of growth in private cars, at 14 per cent per year, in the past 30 years! This could be largely due the affordability of the Proton and Perodua cars, encouraging motorcycle owners to switch over to cars.(14)

The trend in per capita vehicle ownership (or persons per vehicle) is shown in Table B. 
 

(vehicle numbers from Road Transport Department (JPJ) as quoted in JICA studies and HPU Report)
Notes: For comparison, cities in OECD countries: 3-4 persons per car
JICA forecasts for year 2000: 6.1 persons per car / 5.7 persons per motorcycle

Previous projections by JICA for Penang were 6.1 persons per car and 5.7 persons per motorcycle by the year 2000.(15) However, these levels were reached even before 1990. At around 3 persons per car, ownership levels in Penang are reaching those in developed countries. For comparison, counties in the UK of similar size and population levels as   Penang, have levels of between 2 to 4 persons to a car(16).

The implications of this finding are pertinent, as they show that the JICA proposals for the Penang and Butterworth outer ring roads, were based on a much lower rate of vehicle ownership and use compared to the actual situation. It would be interesting to know whether the JICA proposals would have paid more attention to public transport if they had been in a position to better estimate the actual rates of vehicle growth.

In comparison with Hong Kong and Singapore for which comparative data was available,  it is evident that vehicle dependency in Penang is very high as shown in Table C.

Table C: Comparison of vehicle dependency for year 2000
 

In year 2000, Penang had 321 cars per 1000 persons compared to 96 for Singapore and 49 for Hong Kong. Vehicle density (vehicles per km of road) is more than twice that for Singapore and Hong Kong!

It is also interesting to compare the trend of vehicle growth in Penang and in Singapore  (which had introduced vehicle restraint policies such as the Area Licensing Scheme since as early as 1975) as shown in Table D.

Table D: Comparison of vehicle dependency in Penang and Singapore
 

Note: 1975-1994 data for Singapore adapted from T.S. Foo (1997)

It is evident that in 1975, there were similar levels of car ownership in Penang and Singapore. However traffic restraint initiatives and an efficient public transport system were introduced in Singapore around that time. The benefits of this policy are obvious; the level of car ownership in Singapore in 1994 was reached in Penang as early as in 1985. In fact, the ratio of cars to people in Singapore today is equivalent to that found in Penang in 1980!

(b) Road space utilisation

The increase in total road length and vehicles registered in the state is shown in Table E.

Table E: Road development and vehicle growth in Penang state (1970 to 2000)
 

While the total road length in the state increased by about 38% between 1990 and 2000, the total registered vehicles in the state increased by 107% during the same period. Vehicle intensity increased by 1.5 times while the number of vehicles per 1000 persons almost doubled. It can be safely concluded from these indicators that the pace of road development in Penang is unable to keep pace with the growth in the number of vehicles.

(c) Road traffic growth
During 1991-2000, traffic volume on the major (primary) roads in the state increased by around 10 per cent per year.(17) Growth in the number of private vehicles (cars and motorcycles) on the road accounts for much of this traffic increase. Data from the HPU Annual Traffic Census shows that the roads with the highest annual growth in traffic volume are located mainly in Seberang Perai Utara.(18)

It is evident that the rural roads in the state are experiencing rapid growth in traffic volume and will face serious congestion and safety problems in the coming years. This can be explained by the increasing urbanisation of the state and the changing land use patterns in Daerah Barat Daya and Seberang Perai Utara and Selatan. Between 1994-2000, overall traffic growth on Penang Bridge was about 9 per cent per year on average while passenger car traffic is growing at almost 11 per cent per year.(19)

(d) Road traffic safety

The incidence and severity of road traffic accidents in the state is a measure of the adequacy of the transportation system. The normal indicators of safety are the number of accidents and the number of injuries and deaths. The trend during the past 10 years is shown in Table F.

Table F: Road accidents in Penang state (1991-2000)
 

The data shows that the road safety situation in the state has seriously deteriorated between 1991 and 2000. The rate of increase in road accidents, the number of deaths and injuries is significantly higher than the average for the entire country. The rate of increase in deaths from road accidents (normalised for population) is almost three times that of the country. The number of accidents per 10,000 persons in Penang is almost four times the national average  in 2000. About 70 per cent of deaths from road accidents involve motorcyclists while death rates amongst pedestrians and cyclists are higher than that for motorists.

(e) Environmental impacts (air and noise pollution)
Various studies have shown that 75% to 80% of the total air pollution load is due to emission from mobile sources i.e. primarily road traffic. Private cars, which constitute around 30% of the total number of vehicles, contribute more than 67% of the total emissions of particulates, SOx, NOx, HC and CO. Air and noise pollution from road traffic is growing in intensity and spreading to areas which were previously unaffected due to changing traffic flow patterns and intrusion of traffic into residential areas. More recent air quality data was not available; however published data from DOE for George Town between 1989-1995 indicates that  total suspended particulate (TSP) levels are more than 40 per cent higher than the Malaysian Recommended Guideline Standard of 90 µg/m3. (20)

Although levels of lead in the air have dropped after the introduction of lead-free fuel, a  recent USM National Poison Centre study in Jelutong (21) found high levels of lead amongst  a sample of school children. There is very little available data on traffic noise level measurements. The results of a 1990 USM study on traffic pollution along Jalan Sg. Nibong, Jalan Masjid Negeri, Jalan Air Itam and Jalan Sultan Ahmad Shah found day time noise  levels in the range of 73-79 dB(A) that were significantly higher than the WHO  recommended level of 55-65 dB(A).(22)

It is likely that with the rapid increase in traffic volumes, the level of noise pollution has worsened since then although there is no available data to indicate the degree of severity of the problem.

From the analysis of current trends, the following conclusions can be made:

The policy of universal private vehicle ownership and unrestricted car and motorcycle use is clearly unsustainable for Penang (and Malaysia) The opportunities for expanding the road network capacity in Penang are constrained by the limited available land area, high population density and a high rate of urbanization

The basic assumptions of vehicle ownership, land use patterns and intensity in the JICA Transport Master Plan of 1980 (that is the basis of transport planning in the state today) have changed tremendously and the proposals for Ring Roads may not be valid anymore.

Road expansion is continuously outpaced by the rapid increase in vehicular traffic (not just in Penang but almost every where in the world) and at current rates can never meet vehicular traffic demand adequately in the future

The safety, health and environmental impacts of transportation are increasing in both  incidence and severity and mitigation measures have not proven successful

The next section discusses the current policy responses to these trends and the dilemma  faced by the decision-makers in moving forward. #

11)  Author's estimate from JKR and MPPP figures
12)  This is not a new phenomenon as in 1967, Penang state had 13 per cent of the total operating vehicles in West Malaysia    although the state had only 9 per cent of the total population.
13)  Table A highlights the trend in private vehicle ownership between 1970 and 2000.
14)  A more refined analysis of car sales figures is required to establish this conjecture
15)  JICA Urban Transport Study, 1981
16)  Bannister and Button, 1993
17)  Author's estimates from Road Traffic Volume, HPU figures
18)  Road Traffic Volume, HPU, 1998
19)  Based on Penang Bridge traffic data compiled by Penang Bridge Sdn. Bhd
20)  Department of Environment Report on the Environment, 1996
21)  Based on media reports
22)  G.L. Evelyn Tan, M.O. Hamzah (1990)

"Towards Sustainable Transport in Malaysia" held in Penang

The review addresses the development of transport plans and strategies from 1970 to 2000 and analyses the trends and challenges in terms of rate of motorization and private vehicle growth, road space utilization, traffic congestion, road traffic safety and environmental quality. Comparisons with Singapore and Hong Kong reveal that Penang has a much higher rate of motorization that is clearly unsustainable.

The paper discusses the strategic options available to the state and suggests that the proposals for the Outer Ring Road and a second bridge between the island and mainland are based on out-dated planning and therefore need to be reviewed.

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